Iowa State
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
72  Perez Rotich SR 19:54
117  Erin Hooker JR 20:06
118  Anne Frisbie SO 20:06
132  Bethanie Brown JR 20:08
268  Branna MacDougall FR 20:29
399  Evelyne Guay SO 20:45
412  Abby Caldwell SO 20:47
465  Kelly Naumann SO 20:52
891  Maryn Lowry JR 21:25
1,038  Megan Schott FR 21:34
1,264  Jasmine Staebler FR 21:48
1,651  Grace Gibbons FR 22:12
1,724  Erinn Stenman-Fahey FR 22:16
2,054  Gwynne Wright FR 22:36
National Rank #16 of 344
Midwest Region Rank #1 of 37
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.1%
Most Likely Finish 17th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 4.7%
Top 10 at Nationals 19.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 64.8%


Regional Champion 67.1%
Top 5 in Regional 99.8%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Perez Rotich Erin Hooker Anne Frisbie Bethanie Brown Branna MacDougall Evelyne Guay Abby Caldwell Kelly Naumann Maryn Lowry Megan Schott Jasmine Staebler
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 812 19:42 20:10 20:42 21:32 21:51
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational (B Race) 10/14 1187 20:54 21:25 21:47
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 528 20:07 19:38 20:07 20:24 20:36 20:57 21:24
Big 12 Championship 10/29 392 19:53 19:59 19:37 19:55 20:38 20:59 20:34 20:30 21:20 21:51
Midwest Region Championships 11/11 580 20:00 20:17 20:04 20:21 20:40 20:46 21:02





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.1% 17.2 448 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.2 1.9 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.7 4.4 4.4 3.8 5.6 5.8 4.6 4.0 4.6 5.1 3.2 3.6 5.0 4.1 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.3
Region Championship 100% 1.5 67 67.1 21.8 7.5 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Perez Rotich 99.1% 72.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5
Erin Hooker 99.1% 106.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Anne Frisbie 99.1% 108.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Bethanie Brown 99.1% 116.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Branna MacDougall 99.1% 178.6
Evelyne Guay 99.1% 210.6
Abby Caldwell 99.1% 214.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Perez Rotich 4.8 2.3 7.7 15.5 15.3 11.5 7.9 7.4 6.8 4.6 3.8 4.1 3.5 2.3 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
Erin Hooker 9.5 0.2 1.1 3.1 6.8 6.3 7.9 9.2 6.2 6.7 5.6 5.2 5.6 4.3 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.5 0.6 1.2 0.7 1.1
Anne Frisbie 9.3 0.1 1.4 3.3 5.9 7.2 7.4 8.0 7.3 7.4 6.9 5.2 5.0 5.1 4.7 3.7 3.4 3.4 2.5 2.5 1.6 1.2 1.5 0.8 1.1 0.5
Bethanie Brown 10.9 0.2 0.7 3.2 4.0 5.4 5.8 6.5 6.6 5.8 6.2 6.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.2 3.5 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.3 2.3 1.5 2.1 1.2 1.1
Branna MacDougall 24.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.4 3.9 4.6 3.9 4.1 3.2 4.1 4.0 3.5
Evelyne Guay 39.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.9 1.2 2.1 1.7 2.3
Abby Caldwell 40.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.3 2.5 2.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 67.1% 100.0% 67.1 67.1 1
2 21.8% 100.0% 21.8 21.8 2
3 7.5% 100.0% 0.8 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 7.5 3
4 2.5% 98.0% 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.4 4
5 1.0% 35.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.4 5
6 0.2% 0.2 6
7 0.1% 0.1 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
Total 100% 99.1% 67.1 21.8 0.8 1.6 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.0 88.8 10.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Baylor 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 92.0% 1.0 0.9
Yale 92.0% 1.0 0.9
BYU 86.9% 1.0 0.9
Harvard 74.3% 1.0 0.7
Penn 68.6% 1.0 0.7
Oklahoma State 65.3% 1.0 0.7
Villanova 62.9% 1.0 0.6
Boise State 60.0% 1.0 0.6
UCLA 54.6% 1.0 0.5
Minnesota 31.9% 1.0 0.3
West Virginia 27.1% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 22.0% 1.0 0.2
SMU 16.3% 1.0 0.2
Wisconsin 14.5% 1.0 0.1
Vanderbilt 6.1% 1.0 0.1
Kansas 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.4% 1.0 0.0
Syracuse 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Texas 2.2% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Florida State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 9.8
Minimum 5.0
Maximum 14.0